The Economics of One Retirement
DTE Stockton is a 50 MW wood-fired biomass plant generating 372,300 MWh/year. It emits 1,067 short tons of PM2.5 annually — more particulate matter than all 67 gas plants in California combined. The health cost calculation is straightforward.
Even after accounting for the cost of replacement power and the facility’s lost revenue, the health benefits exceed costs by $830M over 20 years. The net benefit is positive in year one.
One Plant vs All Others
The facility ranking reveals just how anomalous DTE Stockton is. The next-worst facility — Glenarm, a gas plant — has a social health cost of $4.8/MWh. DTE Stockton is $56.42/MWh. The gap is not incremental. It is an order of magnitude.
| Facility | Fuel | Deaths / Year | Health Cost / MWh | DAC Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTE Stockton | Wood | 3.706 | $56.42 | 35.6% |
| Glenarm | Gas | 0.071 | $4.8 | 26.8% |
| Walnut Creek Energy Park | Gas | 0.024 | $4.3 | 30.4% |
| Malburg Generating Station | Gas | 0.137 | $4.0 | 53.8% |
| AES Alamitos | Gas | 0.472 | $3.5 | 18.3% |
| Haynes Generating Station | Gas | 0.528 | $3.4 | 19.6% |
| Magnolia Power Project | Gas | 0.360 | $3.1 | 31.9% |
| Valley Generating Station | Gas | 0.268 | $2.9 | 40.4% |
| Campbell Power Plant | Gas | 0.160 | $2.8 | 19.4% |
| AES Huntington Beach | Gas | 0.439 | $2.7 | 12.5% |
DTE Stockton produces 3.71 deaths per year. All 67 other facilities combined produce 7.5. One biomass plant is a third of the total facility-level health burden.
Wood vs Gas: The Numbers
| Fuel Type | Facilities | Deaths / Year | Health Cost ($M) | Avg $/MWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood | 1 | 3.71 | $43.0M | $56.42 |
| Pipeline Natural Gas | 65 | 7.25 | $84.3M | $1.60 |
| Other Gas | 1 | 0.20 | $2.3M | $0.60 |
| Natural Gas | 1 | 0.02 | $0.3M | $2.00 |
The Community Impact
DTE Stockton sits in San Joaquin County. 35.6% of the health burden falls on disadvantaged communities (DAC), one of the highest DAC shares in the facility portfolio. The cheapest intervention per avoided death and the one with the largest DAC share are the same plant.
The wildfire-biomass tradeoff. DTE Stockton operates partly under California’s SB 901 and AB 1144, which mandate biomass utilization of forest fuel to reduce wildfire risk. Retiring the plant would require alternative disposal of forest waste. Open pile burning is worse for air quality. Any retirement plan must address this counterfactual — but the magnitude of the health gap ($56.42/MWh vs $1.60/MWh average gas) leaves ample room for alternative solutions.
EPA eGRID facility data · InMAP source-receptor matrix · Di et al. 2017 CRF · Census tract population weighting · VSL = $11.6M (EPA 2024) · 3% discount rate · Replacement power cost = marginal gas generation