Track Record · Background

The foundation behind the mission.

After teaching mathematics, I’ve spent 24 years in modeling, simulation, and analysis (MS&A), primarily for national security. That work led me to develop Analysis Driven Modeling: define the decision, choose the model and fidelity that decision needs, test the result honestly, and explain it clearly. I am now testing how those skills and methods translate to other consequential domains, including neurodegeneration.

← Track Record
The Arc

A career built around one question

After teaching mathematics, I moved into defense modeling, simulation, and analysis in 2002. MS&A has been my work ever since. Over those 24 years I have built, led, and reviewed analytical work used for consequential decisions. The settings changed — from missile-defense test analysis to multi-domain architecture studies and space-sector mission analysis — but the obligation did not: the model had to fit the question, its limits had to be understood, and the result had to be clear enough to support action.

Much of that 24-year span was spent supporting the Missile Defense Agency, across GMD test and evaluation, targets and countermeasures, threat engineering, BMDS architecture assessment, and independent capability analysis.

At MITRE’s Cross-Cutting Urgent Innovation Cell (CUIC), I served as Chief Analyst and as a resource manager for more than 20 staff. The cell worked across national-security sponsors on urgent operational-analysis problems. My role included helping teams frame the right analysis questions, choose decision-relevant metrics, and build models at the fidelity needed to answer them. I also led and reviewed multi-domain effects-chain and architecture studies for Department of Defense and intelligence-community sponsors.

Across that work, I developed Analysis Driven Modeling: the analysis question determines which model to build, at what fidelity, and with which metrics. Not “here’s a model, let’s find a question for it.” The question comes first.

Before MITRE, I spent seven years running my own firm. That experience taught me things you can’t learn inside a large organization — finding the work, winning it, and standing behind every answer. When you are the firm, the model has to work and the briefing has to land. After that, you never hand over a number you can’t stand behind.

The core lesson is not limited to national security: the hardest part is knowing how good a model needs to be for the decision it supports. The independent studies on this site apply that discipline to health, energy, environmental, and education questions. They do not substitute for subject-matter expertise. They test where the MS&A skills and methodology transfer, where stronger domain knowledge is needed, and where higher fidelity is justified.

Where I’m taking this — the vision →

Career

The full track record

A career spanning mathematics education, defense and aerospace modeling, independent consulting, and multi-domain analysis. (Most recent first.)
  1. Major Aerospace Prime Contractor · Space Sector
    Modeling, Simulation & Analysis
    Leads modeling, simulation, and analysis in the space sector, including orbital mechanics, trajectory optimization, sensor-performance modeling across multiple phenomenologies, multi-domain mission studies, and future concept architectures. Develops and integrates system-level simulation frameworks, performance models, and algorithms, and contributes to modeling-and-simulation strategy and infrastructure.
    The Model: orbital mechanics, trajectory optimization, multi-phenomenology sensor models, system-of-systems architecture trades
    Space-sector mission analysis Simulation frameworks & strategy Current role (as of 2026)
  2. The MITRE Corporation — CUIC
    Chief Analyst, Cross-Cutting Urgent Innovation Cell
    Served as Chief Analyst for CUIC, helping teams define analysis questions, choose decision-relevant metrics, and build models at the appropriate fidelity. Led and reviewed multi-domain effects-chain and architecture studies for Department of Defense and intelligence-community sponsors using AFSIM and custom tools. Also served as resource manager and direct supervisor for more than 20 employees.
    The Model: multi-domain operations, effects chains, architecture-level trade spaces
    More than 20 staff supervised DoD & intelligence-community studies ADM principles developed
  3. Independent Defense Consulting Firm
    Owner
    Founded and ran an independent defense analytics firm for seven years, working primarily as a subcontractor. Contracting partners included MIT Lincoln Laboratory, CSC, Torch Technologies, and L-3 Coleman Aerospace; sponsors included MDA, JIEDDO, ARDEC, AMCOM, and NRL. The work covered threat analysis, simulation, BMDS architecture, target requirements, signature modeling, and systems engineering.
    • MDA: architecture-level BMDS analysis briefed to leadership, flight-test threat trajectory and signature modeling, and validation against intelligence benchmarks
    • JIEDDO: lead systems engineer for a counter-IED program; lead author on the system requirements document for a cognitive signature-matching system
    The Model: threat trajectories, missile signatures, BMDS architecture, counter-IED systems
    Defense contractors & DoD sponsors Multiple performance awards 7 years as business owner
  4. Booz Allen Hamilton
    Associate · Program Manager & Data Analyst
    Program management and quantitative analysis for defense and intelligence-community clients, including signature-data programs, missile-analysis software, technology roadmaps, and test-requirements analysis. The work combined client delivery, data analysis, Python-based tooling, and systems engineering.
    The Model: signature data, missile trajectories, technology roadmaps, requirements analysis
    DIA & MDA programs Program management & analytical software
  5. Teledyne Brown Engineering
    GMD Analyst
    My entry into defense modeling and simulation. Supported GMD test planning and evaluation, developed system models, analyzed simulation output, and wrote MATLAB tools for radar performance, telemetry coverage, and end-game metrics.
    The Model: GMD system behavior, radar performance, telemetry coverage, end-game metrics
    Missile defense analysis Entry to defense M&S (modeling & simulation)
  6. Mathematics Education
    Professional Tutor · 8th Grade Teacher · Community College Instructor
    My first three professional roles were, in order, professional math tutor, 8th-grade math teacher, and community-college math instructor. Teaching made clear that an explanation is only useful when the other person understands it and can act on it. If an 8th grader does not understand, they do not politely nod; you have to find another way in. That lesson has mattered in every analytical role since.
    The work: diagnosing where understanding breaks down and finding another way to explain it
    First three professional roles Communication as a core skill
Education

The academic foundation

Applied mathematics, physics, and operations research.
MS Applied Mathematics, UNC Wilmington
Fluid Dynamics, Probability & Statistics
BA Physics · BS Mathematics, UNC Wilmington
Mathematical Physics & Operations Research
Technical Practice

Capabilities & tools

The modeling environments, computational tools, and analytical methods used across that work.

Simulation

  • AFSIM
  • STK
  • STAMP
  • POST II
  • DICE
  • TGx

Programming

  • Python
  • MATLAB
  • SQL
  • PyTorch
  • TensorFlow
  • JavaScript

Methods

  • Monte Carlo
  • Reinforcement Learning
  • Bayesian Inference
  • Optimization
  • Uncertainty Quantification
  • Conformal Prediction

Visualization

  • Interactive Dashboards
  • 2D/3D Graphics
  • Data Visualization
  • Canvas API

Right Fidelity AI is an independent research effort that I pursue outside my full-time work. I am responsible for the research and analysis published here.

Michael Key

Founder and researcher, Right Fidelity AI

Email ORCID GitHub