Closure Rate by Region
The West has the highest descriptive rate at 1.1%: 2 closures among 180 institutions. The Southeast has 2 among 387; the Northeast and Midwest have 1 each.
Which States Are Hardest Hit?
Washington ranks first in this retained cohort with 1 observed closure among 20 institutions, or 5.0%. The ranking is driven by single events in small state samples and should not be read as a stable league table.
Demographic exposure is context, not destiny. Birth cohorts can inform enrollment scenarios, but these data do not show that the demographic headwind score causes or reliably predicts an institution's closure.
State comparisons become even less stable: most states have no observed closure in this retained cohort. A larger, consistently labeled longitudinal outcome set would be needed before testing whether demographic variables add predictive value beyond institutional features.
Descriptive College Scorecard/IPEDS output for the retained public-data cohort. Demographic headwind scores use Census-calibrated birth-rate projections and are normalized by state. Regions group Census Bureau divisions into six macro-regions. No causal inference is claimed.