Where Do Closures Cluster?
The histogram below shows the distribution of financial stress scores for operating institutions (blue) and those labeled closed (rose). The six closures do not form a clean high-score cluster: one is in the Moderate tier, three are High, and two are Critical.
Financial stress score: enrollment trend (5-year compound annual growth rate) + tuition dependency (tuition revenue / total revenue) + days cash on hand. Scored 0–100, higher = more stressed.
How Many Are in the Danger Zone?
We grouped institutions into four tiers based on stress score. The Critical tier contains 548 institutions and 2 observed closures; the High tier contains 3, the Moderate tier 1, and the Low tier none.
The tiers overlap too much to support a confident cutoff. Closed labels appear in three of the four tiers, while most Critical institutions remain operating in the current records. The tier is a stress indicator, not a closure prediction.
Top 20 At-Risk Operating Institutions
These are the 20 currently-operating institutions with the highest computed stress scores. They are a data-quality and screening watchlist, not a prediction that any named institution will close.
| Institution | State | Sector | Enrollment | Score | Tuition Dep. | Days Cash |
|---|
Source: College Scorecard and IPEDS (Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System) 2015–2023 data. Stress score computed from enrollment trend (5-year compound annual growth rate), tuition dependency ratio, and days cash on hand.
How Good Is This Simple Rule?
At the selected threshold, the public output reports 0% recall and 0% precision. Those values are based on only six positive cases, so they describe this retained cohort rather than stable future performance.
Transparency is useful, but it does not rescue a failed validation. The score remains a reasonable screening prototype because its inputs and logic are visible. Before operational use, it needs a broader outcome set, threshold redevelopment, and external validation.